Please read the README file in this repository.

Other analyses

• Binder sandbox (takes a few minutes to load)
• Analyze
• Croatia-Nordics-And-Some
• North_America
• Asia
• South_America
• Africa

Table of Contents

• Analysis of the most affected countries in Europe
• Cross-country comparison over absolute dates
  • Confirmed
  • Dead
  • Daily Dead (7-Day Average)
  • Active
• Cross-country comparison with approximately aligned start days
  • Confirmed
  • Dead
  • Daily Dead (7-Day Average)
  • Active
• Per-country analysis with exponential and sigmoidal projections, and new cases analysis
  • Belgium
  • Spain
  • Italy
  • United Kingdom
  • North Macedonia
  • Bosnia and Herzegovina
  • France
  • Montenegro
• Recovering countries that had over 300 active cases at peak
  • List of all recovering countries (the top 4 not covered above are also analyzed below)
  • Czechia
  • Switzerland
  • Armenia
  • Slovakia

Analysis of the most affected countries in Europe⮸

Cross-country comparison over absolute dates⮸

Confirmed⮸

Dead⮸

Daily Dead (7-Day Average)⮸

Active⮸

Cross-country comparison with approximately aligned start days⮸

Confirmed⮸

Dead⮸

Daily Dead (7-Day Average)⮸

Active⮸

Per-country analysis with exponential and sigmoidal projections, and new cases analysis⮸

IMPORTANT: The projections are only accurate if the fit is good (it often isn't), and assuming nothing changes going forward. The sigmoid is omitted if a reasonable fit can't be computed, but this still doesn't mean that the fit is good if it is shown.

The dashed lines show best fit projections from a few previous days for comparison.

Belgium⮸

Population $11,589,623$

Confirmed⮸

Start date 2020-03-03 (1st day with 1 confirmed per million)

Latest number $582,252$ on 2020-12-02

Dead⮸

Start date 2020-03-11 (1st day with 0.1 dead per million)

Latest number $16,911$ on 2020-12-02

Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{10,751.6}{1 + 10^{-0.035 (t - 42.7)}}\) (asimptote \(10,751.6\))

Active⮸

Start date 2020-03-03 (1st day with 1 active per million)

Latest number $565,341$ on 2020-12-02

Spain⮸

Population $46,754,778$

Confirmed⮸

Start date 2020-03-01 (1st day with 1 confirmed per million)

Latest number $1,665,775$ on 2020-12-02

Dead⮸

Start date 2020-03-06 (1st day with 0.1 dead per million)

Latest number $45,784$ on 2020-12-02

Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{31,759.9}{1 + 10^{-0.030 (t - 40.1)}}\) (asimptote \(31,759.9\))

Active⮸

Start date 2020-03-01 (1st day with 1 active per million)

Latest number $1,469,615$ on 2020-12-02

Italy⮸

Population $60,461,826$

Confirmed⮸

Start date 2020-02-22 (1st day with 1 confirmed per million)

Latest number $1,641,610$ on 2020-12-02

Dead⮸

Start date 2020-02-24 (1st day with 0.1 dead per million)

Latest number $57,045$ on 2020-12-02

Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{37,440.3}{1 + 10^{-0.027 (t - 50.6)}}\) (asimptote \(37,440.3\))

Active⮸

Start date 2020-02-23 (1st day with 1 active per million)

Latest number $761,230$ on 2020-12-02

United Kingdom⮸

Population $67,886,011$

Confirmed⮸

Start date 2020-03-01 (1st day with 1 confirmed per million)

Latest number $1,663,467$ on 2020-12-02

Dead⮸

Start date 2020-03-10 (1st day with 0.1 dead per million)

Latest number $59,796$ on 2020-12-02

Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{43,877.6}{1 + 10^{-0.028 (t - 49.1)}}\) (asimptote \(43,877.6\))

Active⮸

Start date 2020-03-01 (1st day with 1 active per million)

Latest number $1,600,069$ on 2020-12-02

North Macedonia⮸

Population $2,083,374$

Confirmed⮸

Start date 2020-03-06 (1st day with 1 confirmed per million)

Latest number $63,890$ on 2020-12-02

Dead⮸

Start date 2020-03-22 (1st day with 0.1 dead per million)

Latest number $1,825$ on 2020-12-02

Active⮸

Start date 2020-03-06 (1st day with 1 active per million)

Latest number $21,088$ on 2020-12-02

Bosnia and Herzegovina⮸

Population $3,280,819$

Confirmed⮸

Start date 2020-03-10 (1st day with 1 confirmed per million)

Latest number $90,378$ on 2020-12-02

Dead⮸

Start date 2020-03-21 (1st day with 0.1 dead per million)

Latest number $2,773$ on 2020-12-02

Active⮸

Start date 2020-03-10 (1st day with 1 active per million)

Latest number $32,638$ on 2020-12-02

France⮸

Population $65,273,511$

Confirmed⮸

Start date 2020-02-29 (1st day with 1 confirmed per million)

Latest number $2,297,393$ on 2020-12-02

Dead⮸

Start date 2020-03-06 (1st day with 0.1 dead per million)

Latest number $53,906$ on 2020-12-02

Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{33,593.3}{1 + 10^{-0.030 (t - 45.6)}}\) (asimptote \(33,593.3\))

Active⮸

Start date 2020-02-29 (1st day with 1 active per million)

Latest number $2,072,290$ on 2020-12-02

Montenegro⮸

Population $628,066$

Confirmed⮸

Start date 2020-03-17 (1st day with 1 confirmed per million)

Latest number $36,351$ on 2020-12-02

Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{149,789.6}{1 + 10^{-0.010 (t - 308.5)}}\) (asimptote \(149,789.6\))

Dead⮸

Start date 2020-03-23 (1st day with 0.1 dead per million)

Latest number $510$ on 2020-12-02

Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{1,498.7}{1 + 10^{-0.010 (t - 284.8)}}\) (asimptote \(1,498.7\))

Active⮸

Start date 2020-03-17 (1st day with 1 active per million)

Latest number $10,432$ on 2020-12-02

Recovering countries that had over 300 active cases at peak⮸

List of all recovering countries (the top 4 not covered above are also analyzed below)⮸

Czechia recovered 67%
Switzerland recovered 47%
Armenia recovered 43%
Slovakia recovered 36%
Austria recovered 32%
Romania recovered 16%
Poland recovered 15%

Czechia⮸

Population $10,708,981$

Confirmed⮸

Start date 2020-03-05 (1st day with 1 confirmed per million)

Latest number $533,042$ on 2020-12-02

Dead⮸

Start date 2020-03-24 (1st day with 0.1 dead per million)

Latest number $8,515$ on 2020-12-02

Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{10,710.5}{1 + 10^{-0.030 (t - 233.3)}}\) (asimptote \(10,710.5\))

Active⮸

Start date 2020-03-05 (1st day with 1 active per million)

Latest number $62,928$ on 2020-12-02

Switzerland⮸

Population $8,654,622$

Confirmed⮸

Start date 2020-02-29 (1st day with 1 confirmed per million)

Latest number $335,660$ on 2020-12-02

Dead⮸

Start date 2020-03-05 (1st day with 0.1 dead per million)

Latest number $5,045$ on 2020-12-02

Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{2,315.5}{1 + 10^{-0.025 (t - 46.0)}}\) (asimptote \(2,315.5\))

Active⮸

Start date 2020-02-29 (1st day with 1 active per million)

Latest number $73,015$ on 2020-12-02

Armenia⮸

Population $2,963,243$

Confirmed⮸

Start date 2020-03-12 (1st day with 1 confirmed per million)

Latest number $137,231$ on 2020-12-02

Dead⮸

Start date 2020-03-26 (1st day with 0.1 dead per million)

Latest number $2,228$ on 2020-12-02

Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{10,327.1}{1 + 10^{-0.005 (t - 367.0)}}\) (asimptote \(10,327.1\))

Active⮸

Start date 2020-03-12 (1st day with 1 active per million)

Latest number $23,208$ on 2020-12-02

Slovakia⮸

Population $5,459,642$

Confirmed⮸

Start date 2020-03-10 (1st day with 1 confirmed per million)

Latest number $109,226$ on 2020-12-02

Dead⮸

Start date 2020-03-18 (1st day with 0.1 dead per million)

Latest number $898$ on 2020-12-02

Active⮸

Start date 2020-03-10 (1st day with 1 active per million)

Latest number $36,590$ on 2020-12-02